The inevitability of Northern Ireland leaving the United Kingdom to be subsumed into a mythical ‘New Ireland’ is once again hitting the headlines. There are no inevitabilities in life but, on the evidence available, it is more reasonable to conclude that the Union and Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom is more likely to be our shared future in the years ahead. Northern Ireland has been in existence for 105 years and counting. Sinn Fein’s forecast that there will be a Border Poll by 2030 will go the same way as its many similar forecasts. The Belfast Agreement states that before calling a border poll a Secretary of State needs clear evidence that it is likely that a referendum would result in Northern Ireland leaving the UK. There is no such body of evidence. 

The average of opinion polls on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future over the past 5 years shows only 35.5% wanting us to leave the UK. The most recent election in 2024 for Westminster had the unionist vote at 43.2%, the largest voting block. The growth of the unaligned on 16.2% is hardly a threat when one considers most of its strength lies in North Down, East Belfast, Lagan Valley and East Antrim, areas not renowned as bastions of Irish nationalism. 

More people vote for a nationalist or republican party than want a united Ireland and more people are pro-Union than vote unionist. This paradox creates an opportunity for political unionism to follow the direction of its grassroots supporters and to translate the larger pro-Union support into unionist votes. 

None of this means that unionism can relax and, contrary to media opinion, the average unionist clearly sees the need to outreach and grow pro-Union support. The Unionist Grassroots Survey undertaken in the Autumn by Uniting UK showed the number one priority for unionism is the promotion of the Union to those who don’t currently vote unionist. 

Many nationalists say ‘sell me the Union’ but unlike the alternative you can already see what you get. Northern Ireland exists as part of the United Kingdom. Alternatively Irish nationalism has had over a century to produce a definitive plan for change and none exists. The excuse of awaiting a citizens assembly to define a ‘New Ireland’ will persuade no-one. Especially as polls show Southern voters have no appetite to change their constitution and way of life to suit an influx of ungrateful Nordies. If I was a ‘persuadable’ on the constitution, in a good public sector job or reliant on access to the UK economy for my successful small business, why would I take the risk for change with no guarantees that my lifestyle would not be thrown up in the air? Make no mistake, if Northern Ireland was subsumed into the Republic, the change for people on both sides of the current border would be immense.  

The other less polite challenge that unionists face is as Michelle Gildernew said, ‘the six counties is a shithole’. 

The Republic’s economy has been highly successful and they have invested wisely in infrastructure and skills. Yet the standard of living here is comparable to the South due to our lower cost of living. Few would be willing to swap the NHS for another health system. Our security and safety is guaranteed by being part of the UK. Our economy is interwoven into the wider UK with over 50% of our ‘exports’ going to GB and UK wide pricing keeps costs down on everything from mobile telephony to postage. 

Northern Ireland is a success. It is recognized globally as the poster child for peace transformation. It has shown a remarkable capability to adapt and provide opportunities for all communities. Michelle O’Neill’s role as First Minister exemplifies that capacity for change. I understand that confirmed republicans and nationalists are willing to take the risk for constitutional change. But I suspect that most of the unaligned would be much more reluctant.

Unionists need to look outside of Northern Ireland and play a greater role on the national political stage but a new government at Westminster will not dramatically change this dynamic. Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch or whomever Labour select to replace Sir Keir Starmer will have a less negative impact on Northern Ireland than any Sinn Fein led government in an all-Ireland Dail with terrorist eulogizing Mary Lou McDonald as Taoiseach. 

The challenge for unionism locally is to do what its grassroots demand and promote Northern Ireland’s success, create a plan to overcome our remaining societal issues and make government work better and deliver for us all. Outreach and positivity will win converts and the outcome will be Northern Ireland remaining within the United Kingdom.